This week's scoreboard: Fri Nov 6 close to Thu Nov 12 close. Source: Yahoo Finance.
This week was a reminder that interest rates still run this market.
Monday felt like relief. The Dow jumped about 1,100 points as stocks bounced back from last week's AI selloff, and the miners ripped: GDX +4.4%, SIL +5.1%, SILJ +5.7%. Then Tuesday's CPI came in hot. By Thursday's close, the 10-year yield was 5.10%, the dollar index hit a 19-month high, and gold dropped to its lowest level in more than a year. The S&P 500 still gained 3.0%, nearly all of it on Monday.
Anything that doesn't pay a yield got hit: gold, silver, the miners and crypto. Meanwhile, the AI trade rotated hard within chips.
1. Hot CPI puts a December hike on the table
October CPI rose 0.4% against 0.3% expected, and core rose 0.3% against 0.2% (CNBC). It was the third straight 0.4%+ month. Fed Governor Waller said officials should consider a 50 bp hike. Futures now price roughly an 85% chance of a 25 bp hike at the Dec 8–9 meeting and about 15% odds of 50 bp (Kitco).
How markets reacted: The 10-year went from 4.86% to 5.10%, and TLT fell 2.7%. The dollar index rose to 103.17. This morning's PPI gave some relief at +0.3% against +0.4% expected, but one soft print doesn't undo three hot ones.
2. Gold hits a one-year low, and the miners take the leverage the wrong way
From Monday's close to Thursday's: GLD -6.5%, SLV -6.3%, GDX -10.5%, SIL -10.6%, SILJ -11.3%. Source: Yahoo Finance.
December gold fell 4.7% for the week to $3,885. Spot traded as low as $3,853 on Thursday, its lowest since October 2025. Silver fell 3.5% to $49.97. On CPI day, silver futures fell 2.8% while SIL lost 5.4% and SILJ 5.7%.
For the week, GDX fell 6.6%, GDXJ 7.5% and SIL 6.0%. Pan American Silver lost 8.4%, First Majestic 7.7%, Agnico Eagle 6.9%, and Newmont 6.8%. Royalty name Wheaton Precious Metals held up best at -3.3%.
Why it matters: With the 10-year above 5% and real yields that hit 2.66% in late October, Western money is trading gold as a rate asset again. The long-term case (central bank buying, deficits, a Fed hiking into an oil shock) is intact, but the bond market will set the bottom.
3. Nvidia loses Jensen Huang, and AMD and Broadcom take the bid
Jensen Huang resigned as Nvidia CEO on Thursday following reports of extramarital affairs, one of them with a woman reported to be a suspected Chinese spy. CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO (Investopedia). NVDA fell as much as 14% early Thursday before closing down 4.3% at $166.19. It lost 11.0% for the week and is more than 30% below its October 6 peak (Reuters).
The money didn't leave chips; it moved to rivals. AMD rose 30.3% for the week and Broadcom 24.1%, with both up about 6% on Thursday. CoreWeave's strong quarter and Google choosing AMD EPYC chips added fuel. SMH gained 8.1% and QQQ 4.9%.
4. Bitcoin slips under $70K as MSCI drops Strategy
Bitcoin fell 5.8% from Friday to Thursday to about $71,340; ether fell 9.8% to about $2,017. Overnight BTC broke below $70,000 to a 12-week low on more than $1.6B of liquidations, and was near $69,100 early Friday. Spot bitcoin ETFs have now had six straight days of outflows.
After Wednesday's close, MSCI confirmed it will remove Strategy from its USA, World and ACWI indexes at the Nov 30 close under its new "non-operating company" screen. Index funds must sell an estimated 13M shares, about 3.1% of shares outstanding. MSTR fell 11.3% for the week to $114.41, and IBIT fell 5.9%. Strategy doesn't have to sell bitcoin; the risk is a shrinking premium that makes it harder to raise money to buy more.
5. Oil, Microsoft and the politics of prices
On Thursday, President Trump said the US doesn't need a deal with Iran. Brent jumped 3.3% to $95.82 and WTI 2.6% to $88.74 (CNBC). Exxon gained 2.4% on the week. Higher oil feeds the inflation fears weighing on gold.
A global Microsoft 365 outage that began Thursday hit Outlook, Teams and Copilot, and services were still recovering Friday morning. MSFT closed Thursday at $523.00, down 1.4% for the week. In Washington, some Democrats in the new majority are floating curbs on data-center build-outs, a policy risk the AI trade hasn't priced.
Opportunities for investors
Quality gold producers and royalties (GDX, AEM, WPM, NEM): The miners fell 10–11% from Monday's close vs. about 6.5% for the metal. Scale in over several weeks. Kitco has gold support at $3,852, then $3,830; a close back above $3,944 would signal the flush is over.
Silver leverage (SLV, PAAS, SIL): The silver miners have the most rebound potential if yields peak. We will keep size small until silver holds $50.
Energy as a hedge (XOM, USO): Energy hedges the same inflation hurting metals.
AMD / AVGO: After 24–30% in four days, I wouldn't chase them into Nvidia's earnings. AMD -9% this morning and AVGO -5%.
Bitcoin (BTC, IBIT): MSCI's forced selling has a known date (Nov 30). Small, staged buys below $70K beat going all in before the rebalance.
Main risks: a 50 bp December hike, the 10-year breaking above its 5.31% October high, an Nvidia earnings disappointment that hits the whole market, and an Iran deal that pulls $10 or more out of crude quickly.
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Outlook: the next few weeks
My base case is that gold chops in a $3,830–$4,000 range while the 10-year holds above 5%, with the miners volatile but likely to bottom before the metal, as they often lead at turns. The next test is whether Tuesday's retail sales and the FOMC minutes keep 50 bp hike talk alive.
Tue Nov 17: October retail sales; Nvidia Q3 results after the close, Colette Kress's first report as interim CEO.
Wed Nov 18: FOMC minutes from the Oct 27–28 meeting.
Thu Nov 19: Walmart earnings, a read on the consumer.
Mon Nov 30: MSCI rebalance, when Strategy leaves the indexes.
Dec 8–9: FOMC. The only question is 25 or 50.
A clean break above 5.31% on the 10-year would mean a deeper reset for the metals. If yields roll over after Nvidia and the minutes, I expect a sharp miner bounce off this week's lows. Either way, I plan to buy weakness, not sell it.
Bottom line
Hot inflation and 5% yields knocked the metals and the miners down this week, while the AI trade rotated rather than broke. I'm using the miner flush to slowly add quality names, keeping energy as a hedge, and waiting for Nov 30 to pass before adding to bitcoin.
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I have been researching, analyzing, and sharing my views of the cryptocurrency market since Bitcoin was $100. Beyond crypto, I cover precious metals, mining stocks, energy, and the technology sector (AI, robotics, biotech, etc.), using the latest AI and Quant tools to find undervalued companies before the herd. In most cases, the small investment in our research pays for itself many times over.
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Cheers,
Jason Hamlin, Founder, Nicoya Research
Prices are Thursday, Nov 12, 2026 closes unless noted (crypto: UTC daily close; Friday crypto quotes as of about 6:45 am PT). Weekly figures are measured from the Friday, Nov 6 close; gold, silver, copper and WTI are front-month futures. Sources: Yahoo Finance, CoinGecko and the linked reports. This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. I may hold positions in assets discussed. Do your own research and consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
