Metals and Miners
Gold Slides 6.8% to $3,876
After giving back its August gains in September, gold kept falling in October. The price is down 6.8% over the past month (from $4,157 on September 30 to $3,876 on October 30, spot) and is down 10.3% year-to-date. Key technical support has been broken, and more near-term downside is likely.
Gold lost key support in the past few trading sessions. Gold has now closed below the ~$4,000 prior low and below all three EMAs (50-day $4,184, 100-day $4,257, 200-day $4,272), with RSI(14) at 29 (oversold). We need to see an immediate bounce back above $4,000 to invalidate this bearish signal.
October left gold about 31% below its January 29, 2026 record near $5,602. Unlike September, rising yields were not the driver: the US 10-year Treasury yield actually fell from 5.29% on September 30 to 4.93% on October 30. Key factors include:
Oil-driven inflation fears and a Fed on hold. Brent rose about 14% in October to $117.64 on Strait of Hormuz attacks, and gold fell to a more-than-two-month low on October 22 as oil-fuelled inflation fears weighed. The Fed held rates on October 28 in a 10–2 vote, with gold at $4,035 that day, so policy offered no relief.
Firm dollar. The US dollar index edged up from 101.45 to 101.88 over the month and peaked at 102.58 on October 12. A firm dollar and elevated yields weighed on gold in mid-October.
Tech rout and forced selling into month-end. The final week brought a sharp equity sell-off. On October 30, gold slipped below $4,000 and hit a one-year low, and silver and platinum sank deep into oversold territory as mining stocks tanked. This is driven by a rush to liquidity, and I view it as throwing out the baby with the bathwater. More downside is likely if stocks keep sinking, but watch for gold to bounce back strongly.
Forecasts were cut, though physical demand held up. CIBC cut its gold forecasts but still sees a recovery to $5,200 in 2027 as central-bank demand offsets Fed headwinds. Indian seasonal demand showed early strength in October.
Takeaway: The past month’s move was driven mainly by higher oil, geopolitical tensions, and the ensuing equity sell-off. Gold is usually a safe haven, but it typically gets dragged down during initial stock market corrections, as leveraged positions unwind and traders have to sell everything in a rush to liquidity. But capital flows back into scarce assets like gold once the dust settles, usually within a few weeks. So, we want to hold core positions but cut some of the more speculative names to have cash on the sidelines and take advantage of quick dips driven by leveraged traders' liquidity needs.
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