Metals and Miners
Gold Adds 0.3% to $4,043 in Past Month
The gold price has continued consolidating around the $4,000 level over the past month. This level is key support not only for the psychological round-number focus, but also because it acted as support in Oct/Nov of last year.
The chart shows the uptrend support line also intersecting with the horizontal $4,000 level soon, which increases our confidence that this support level is the bottom of this corrective cycle. Gold is trading below all key EMAs, and the RSI at 45 has room to move in either direction.
I think this consolidation and bottoming is nearly over and that gold is likely due for a breakout to the upside and reaching $5,000 or more by year-end. Given this outlook, I think savvy investors should be accumulating.
In July, gold stabilized and posted its first monthly gain in several months, ending a multi-month losing streak and trading mostly in a $3,950–$4,200 range. Spot prices hovered around $4,000–$4,100 through much of the month and were near $4,040–$4,070 by early August 2026. Short-term bounces occurred on weaker U.S. jobs data early in the month (which eased some rate-hike bets) and after the late-July Fed meeting.
Key factors for the gold price:
Central bank demand remained robust: The World Gold Council’s Q2 2026 Gold Demand Trends report showed total demand flat year-on-year at 1,269 tonnes (H1 up 2% to 2,522 tonnes, valued at a record ~$380 billion). Central banks bought a strong 289 tonnes in Q2 (a sharp rebound after a revised weaker Q1), with China extending its official purchase streak (to around 20 consecutive months in related reporting). Surveys indicated 89% of reserve managers expect global central bank gold holdings to rise further, and a record share (around 45%) plan to increase their own reserves. Physical bar/coin demand held relatively steady, while ETF outflows and high prices pressured jewelry volumes.
Fed policy under Chair Kevin Warsh has been a major headwind: Markets have priced in potential rate hikes (odds for a September move fluctuated in the 60–80% range at points) due to inflation concerns partly linked to energy prices and Middle East developments. The Fed held rates steady at its late-July meeting; Warsh emphasized a firm commitment to the 2% inflation target with “no soft target.” This initially provided some relief (weaker dollar/yields supported a gold bounce), but the overall hawkish tilt and higher opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold have limited upside.
Geopolitics and energy: Renewed or ongoing Middle East tensions (including Iran-related issues and Strait of Hormuz concerns) periodically boosted oil prices, inflation fears, and rate-hike expectations (negative for gold near-term) while also providing intermittent safe-haven support.
Takeaway: The 30% correction is healthy after the strong run, with improved risk/reward for longer-term holders. Central bank and Asian physical demand are expected to cushion further declines. Gold remains sensitive to U.S. rates, the dollar, and real yields in the near term, but the structural case (central bank diversification, geopolitical uncertainty, and physical demand) has not been dismantled by the correction.
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