Last month, I highlighted how Bitcoin had been chopping sideways for nearly two months, in what could be an early bottoming formation. The price finally bounced off the bottom and soared 23% quickly from $62,000 to $82,000, before settling at the current price of $80,000.

The bounce took the price through all key EMAs, which is encouraging. But the RSI became very overbought around 87 (anything over 70 is overbought). Price then turned back at $82,000, a key technical level to watch, as it has been both support and resistance in the past (see the blue arrows at the $82,000 line on the chart). Ideally, we want to see price break decisively through $82,000 and hold for a few days to build confidence that the bear cycle bottom is in.

But even if we get another corrective move in the near-term, I expect the prior bottom around $58,000 to hold again if tested. I am currently about 70% convinced that we have seen the cycle bottom and plan to continue gradually increasing exposure, as we have been doing in recent months.

Crypto had a strong recovery month, with the total market cap rising from about $2.2T to $2.7T (~+20%). Bitcoin had its first green August since 2021 and its best August since 2017. Prices are still well below the Oct 2025 peak near $126k.

The mid-August breakout was institutional + macro + squeeze, not a retail FOMO wave.

Takeaway: A great month for the crypto sector, with a few caveats. Late August cooled after Fed Chair Warsh sounded hawkish. Spot volumes are still not at 2025-peak levels. September is historically weak for BTC, and $80–82k needs to hold if this is more than a squeeze. Key resistance at $82k still hangs overhead and needs to be taken out to confirm the move.