After a small dip in early September, Bitcoin bounced back above the prior high and key resistance. This 9% advance to $86,500 increases our confidence that the corrective cycle that started in October of 2025 is over.

I will be watching for prior resistance around $82,000 to turn into support. As long as price can hold above this level, I think we will reach $100,000 within months. The RSI is nearing overbought levels at 65, but still has a bit more room to run higher.

A stock market crash driven by spiking yields or escalating geopolitical tensions could halt the advance, but Bitcoin has shown signs of decoupling from equities lately and climbing when other asset prices are flat or falling.

Bitcoin climbed from the high $50,000s at the start of the third quarter to the mid-$80,000s, a gain of about 44% for the quarter, its second-best third quarter on record. Bitcoin is still about a third below the October 2025 peak, and Ethereum is more than 50% below the August 2025 high near $4,955.

The bid was institutional, and it was jumpy. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in about $2.4 billion in the week ended September 25, the best week since October 2025, flipping year-to-date flows positive. On September 21 alone, flows were about $1 billion. The streak broke before the month ended, with a $149 million outflow, then a smaller inflow as bitcoin traded back above $86,000 into October. Wallets holding 10 to 10,000 bitcoin added about 41,000 coins late in the month.

The same rates story that hit tech hit crypto. Bitcoin sold off toward $77,000 mid-month as oil and the 10-year yield rose, then recovered anyway, with yields still near a 24-year high and the dollar at an 18-month high. Citi raised its 12-month bitcoin target to $113,000 and its ether target to about $3,000. October has finished higher in 10 of the last 13 years. The setup going in is a flow streak that already broke once, and a resistance band around $83,000 to $86,000 where a lot of coins last changed hands.

Takeaway: A nice bounce and continuation of the uptrend following the early July lows near $55,000. This tracks typical 4-year halving cycle movements and suggests another 18 to 24 months of upside is likely.