After a run to $87,200 in early October, Bitcoin failed at the $83,000–$86,000 resistance band and slid back below the prior breakout level. October's 7% decline to $77,500 puts the recovery from the early-July lows to the test. Bitcoin is now down about 11% YTD.

I was watching for prior resistance around $82,000 to turn into support. That level failed late in the month, and Bitcoin closed October at $77,424, below the 50-day EMA (about $80,400) and the 100-day EMA (about $77,700), and just above the 200-day EMA near $76,400. The RSI has dropped from 65 to about 36, which is closer to oversold than overbought. This morning, Bitcoin is trading near $78,000, just back above the 100-day EMA.

The chart shows that after $82k failed, the next key support is around $76k. All 3 key EMAs are also in this $76k to $82k range.

A stock market crash driven by spiking yields or escalating geopolitical tensions could halt the advance. In late October, Bitcoin traded with tech stocks rather than apart from them, falling below $80,000 in the risk-off move the day after the Fed meeting.

Bitcoin opened October near $83,600, hit $87,200 on October 2, and then spent the month making lower highs. It ended at $77,424, down 7.3% for the month. The October 30 low near $76,100 was the lowest print since mid-September. Bitcoin is still about 38% below its October 2025 peak near $126,300. Ethereum fell more sharply, down 16% to about $2,250. It is down 24% YTD and more than 50% below its August 2025 high near $4,955.

The institutional bid that carried September faded. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs had net outflows of about $516 million in October, after about $2.6 billion of inflows in September. That cut year-to-date flows to roughly $450 million. Flows swung hard both ways: about $527 million in on October 19 and $525 million on October 21, then $636 million out on October 22 and $643 million out on October 30. Ether funds lost about $1.6 billion over the month.

Two shocks hit in the last week. On October 28, the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4%, and two members voted for another hike. The next day, Binance lost about $6.3 billion in the largest crypto hack on record. Blockchain analysts attributed it to North Korea. Bitcoin dropped from about $81,000 to the $77,000s within a day. The backdrop is still rates: September CPI came in at 3.7%, the 10-year yield is near 5%, and oil traded above $111 during the month as attacks in the Middle East continued.

Takeaway: Bitcoin gave back most of the September breakout. It is trading near $78,000 this morning, just above its 200-day EMA, with the RSI in the mid-30s and ETF buyers stepping back. I still view the early-July low near $55,000 as the cycle low, but the uptrend needs to hold the $76,000 area to stay intact. For investors, this is a level to add in small tranches rather than chase. If you are adding, keep some dry powder in case the October low breaks, and watch for ETF inflows to return as a sign the bid has returned.