Bitcoin bounced nearly 20% higher during the past month, climbing back above $80,000. The OG cryptocurrency is tracking higher with technology stocks, which have also broken out to new highs in recent weeks.

The Bitcoin price broke through prior resistance around $75,000 and has established several higher highs and higher lows since. The price broke upward through the 50-day and 100-day EMAs and is now testing the 200-day EMA.

The RSI momentum indicator approached overbought levels this week, but stopped just short. There is room for the price to continue running higher a little longer before an expected pullback and consolidation of these gains.

I continue to believe that the trajectory of the war on Iran will be the key driver of the price in the near-term. If a peace deal is reached and the Strait is reopened, I expect prices for stocks and crypto to continue ripping higher. If Trump or Israel decides to escalate, the oil price is likely to spike higher, while stocks and crypto are likely to correct sharply.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw massive inflows in April (~$2.44B, nearly double March's total and the strongest month of the year). BlackRock dominated, with total AUM exceeding $100B. This institutional demand has been a major driver.

Broader sentiment improved with regulatory optimism (potential progress on crypto market structure bills in May) and whale/institutional accumulation.

Takeaway: Overall, the narrative has shifted bullish in recent weeks, driven by institutional flows and macro relief, though volatility remains high with ongoing macro and geopolitical sensitivities. I am cautiously optimistic in the short term and remain bullish in the medium and longer-term.