The Bitcoin price rallied to a new record high during 2025, briefly climbing above $126,000 in October.  But this new high was just slightly above highs from previous months and looked nothing like a top in my view. But it was an interim top, at least for 2025, as the price quickly dropped to lows around $80,000 in the few months following the peak.

Looking at the chart, we can see the price has been hugging the bottom line of the trend channel for a few months now. This line is acting as support and we are seeing a series of higher lows, which is bullish.

But the price has been unable to sustain a meaningful rally and continues to trade below the key EMAs (50, 100 and 200). The RSI became oversold in late November, but has since slowly climbed up to 54. There is still plenty of room to keep advancing and I expect a resumption of the bull cycle in Q1 of this year.

Some believe October was the top of the 4-year cycle and we will now see a bear cycle that lasts well over a year. I think the 4-year cycle that aligns with halvings will see greatly reduced price significance moving forward.

Takeaway: A disappointing year for crypto investors, even with Bitcoin hitting new record highs briefly. But the chart remains bullish and the fundamental indicators that we will discuss below suggest the bull cycle did not complete. I look for another big run at some point in 2026 that pushes prices significantly above the 2025 highs.