Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin Up 1% to $64,500
Bitcoin has been chopping sideways for nearly two months now, in what could be an early bottoming formation. The price is up 1% in the past month.
The price has been hugging the 50-day EMA during the past month. When the eventual breakout happens, I will be watching for the price to break through resistance at the 200-day EMA to confirm the start of the next bull cycle. The last breakout in early May was turned away at the 200-day EMA, so this will be a key level to monitor.
The 4-year cycle suggests that Bitcoin should form a bottom around October or November. This leaves the potential for one more drop toward key support around $53,000, which acted as support multiple times in the past.
Key influences included:
Macro and Fed expectations — A weak June jobs report (57,000 additions, well below expectations) early in July supported hopes for easier policy under relatively new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, aiding the initial rebound. Bitcoin traded sensitively to rate-path repricing. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50–3.75% at its late-July meeting (with notable dissents favoring a hike), which limited further upside. Inflation risks from energy/diesel costs and geopolitics (Middle East developments affecting oil) also factored in, as these influence CPI expectations and Fed decisions.
ETF flows and institutional activity — Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a shift from heavy June outflows (~$4.5 billion) to modest positive or less negative flows in parts of July (net inflows for the month were limited, around $205 million in one report—the lowest on record in some tracking). Whale accumulation (hundreds of thousands of BTC in periods) provided support, while some corporate treasury activity (e.g., Strategy sales earlier) and broader capital competition from AI infrastructure weighed at times.
Demand remained relatively thin overall compared with prior bull phases, with ETF assets well below 2025 peaks.
Takeaway: Nobody can say for sure when the sector will bottom out, but the signals are increasingly bullish. The 4-year cycle is nearing a bottom; the price has corrected over 50% from the highs; whales are accumulating aggressively; and the broader market sell-off looks overdue.
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