This week's scoreboard: Fri Oct 23 close to Thu Oct 29 (~10 am PT). Source: Yahoo Finance.
This week's tape came down to one question: who gets paid for AI, and who pays the bill?
The macro backdrop got tougher. The Fed held at 3.75–4.00% on Wednesday, but two officials dissented in favor of a hike, and the statement flatly said: "Inflation remains elevated." This morning's data didn't help. Q3 GDP came in at 3.4%, core PCE rose to 3.1% and headline PCE hit 3.6%. FedWatch now prices in roughly 83–87% odds of a December hike, and the 10-year is sitting right around 5%.
That backdrop changes how investors value long-duration growth. When money costs 5%, "spend now, earn later" gets marked down hard. Hard assets and the companies selling picks and shovels hold up. You can see that split clearly in this week's scoreboard above.
Tech: The market is now grading the AI buildout
Alphabet got punished for its cash burn. Search revenue of $63.35B missed. Free cash flow came in at-$9.07B versus expectations of– $2.70B, while 2026 capex guidance stayed at $195–205B (CNBC). GOOGL is down about 12% today, and Reuters noted it was on track to erase more than $464B in market value. Microsoft did better: Azure grew 48%. But it spent $45.2B on capex, and its free cash flow fell 27%. It is also reportedly raising at least $25B in bonds. One Barings strategist called the buildout "increasingly debt-financed."
Software sold off on AI disruption fears. ServiceNow is down about 25% today, on pace for its worst day ever. It missed EPS by two cents, guided Q4 revenue to $4.25–4.26B against $4.36B expected, and projected slower cRPO growth. That was enough to revive the "SaaSpocalypse" trade. The software ETF IGV is down 2.9% for the week.
The companies selling to AI spenders rallied. Vertiv jumped about 17% Wednesday after beating and raising its full-year forecast and is up 29% this week. The semiconductor ETF SMH is up 6.6%, and SK Hynix's profit rose more than sevenfold.
What it means / what I'm watching
Second-order effect: Hyperscaler capex is still a spending plan, not a slowdown. Alphabet held its guidance. But it is increasingly funded with debt at 5% Treasury yields. That is good news for the companies collecting the checks (power, cooling, memory) and bad news for the margins of the companies writing them. I would rather own the toll road than the driver until free cash flow at the big spenders turns.
Contrarian angle: A 25–30% drop in a quality software name with 20% revenue growth is the kind of washout that often marks a better entry later. I would wait for the dust to settle rather than catch the first bounce.
What would change my view: A hyperscaler that cuts capex guidance would hurt the suppliers far more than the spenders. Caterpillar fell 8% this week as investors questioned data-center power demand. That's a yellow flag worth respecting.
Catalysts: Amazon reports tonight. Apple and Palantir report Mon Nov 2. AMD reports Nov 3, then Arm and Qualcomm Nov 4, and Nvidia Nov 17.
Risk: Valuations on the AI winners are now pricing in perfection. A Vertiv-style +29% week leaves little room for a soft quarter.
Commodities: Gold refuses to break, oil is a coiled spring
Gold barely moved even though the macro turned against it. Gold is near $4,028, up about 0.5% for the week. It held there with December hike odds near 85%, a 5% ten-year, and the dollar index near its 2026 high. When a non-yielding asset holds its ground amid that much rate pressure, it suggests buyers are stepping in on weakness. Kitco puts support at $4,024 and then $3,986, with resistance at $4,084 and then $4,146. The miners did better than the metal: GDX was up 1.6% and SIL 2.1%.
Silver lagged while copper firmed. Silver fell 2.4% to about $52.44 and is sitting just under Kitco's $52.69 support, with $51.30 as the next level. Copper rose about 2% to $6.60/lb, which fits a market that still believes in physical AI and grid demand.
Oil sold off despite plenty of bad news. Three tankers reportedly hit mines south of Hormuz, Houthis struck Saudi Arabia's biggest refinery, and the EIA reported a 1.9M-barrel crude draw. Brent still fell this week. The expiring December contract is around $114, down about 2.5%; January, which most screens now show, is near $110. Hopes for peace talks and a 350k b/d rebound in Russian refinery runs offset the supply fears.
What it means / what I'm watching
Second-order effect: Oil is still above $100 even as the Fed tightens, which raises the risk of a policy mistake. The Bank of Canada hiked this week too. Tighten into a supply shock, and you risk causing the slowdown that would have cooled inflation on its own. That scenario would favor gold over cyclicals.
The asymmetry: The WSJ reported that the US is preparing a renewed round of strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms. Oil is trading on peace headlines while the calendar points to escalation. For investors with energy exposure (USO, or producers like EXE and NESR), this is a week to hold, not trim.
Levels: On gold, a daily close back above $4,084 tells me the dip is done. A break of $3,986 opens a deeper reset, and I'd use it to add to quality miners rather than to panic. On silver, watch $51.30.
Risk: A real Iran deal could pull $10+ out of crude quickly. Size energy positions so a peace headline doesn't hurt you, but I think escalation is most likely.
Crypto: Bitcoin stays calm, HYPE gets a Wall Street endorsement
ICE is betting on Hyperliquid. Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the NYSE, is partnering with and investing in TradeXYZ. The plan is to bring perpetual futures on crypto, equities, indices, commodities and FX to the US, pending regulatory approval. Hyperliquid's HIP-3 standard provides the technology, and ICE handles exchange and clearing. HYPE is up about 25% this week to roughly $96, just below its $97.96 all-time high. Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) is up about 35% for the week.
Bitcoin held steady through a hawkish Fed. BTC is near $81,100, flat on the week. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $137M Wednesday, their third straight inflow day (~$424M), which flipped October to net inflows. Ether ETFs, by contrast, have lost $1.35B this month. Bitwise also raised its 2036 BTC target to $1.6M, and Strategy shareholders approved daily dividends on its preferreds.
AI tokens traded like Alphabet. NEAR is down about 7% this week and was among the hardest-hit tokens in the Alphabet selloff. TAO slipped too.
What it means / what I'm watching
Second-order effect: ICE's head said the perp markets are "additive to our futures markets, not a replacement." Once the incumbent decides to partner instead of compete, the decentralized platform gains a regulatory and distribution moat. I see this as HYPE's strongest fundamental case to date, and both HYPE and PURR sit in our portfolios.
What would change my view: A failed breakout above $97.96 that reverses below $80 would mean this was a news spike, not a repricing. Approval is not guaranteed.
The tell for BTC: Bitcoin held $80K with hike odds jumping and the Nasdaq down more than 1% today. That shows relative strength. Positive ETF inflows through the December FOMC would confirm it.
Rotation: AI tokens (NEAR, TAO) are trading as high-beta proxies for AI equities right now, not on their own fundamentals. I'm waiting for that link to break before adding.
Week ahead
Thu Oct 29 (tonight): Amazon earnings. BoJ decision Friday.
Mon Nov 2: ISM Manufacturing; Apple and Palantir after the close.
Tue Nov 3: US midterm elections; JOLTS; AMD, Arista after the close.
Wed Nov 4: ADP, ISM Services, EIA inventories; Circle and Uber before the open; Qualcomm, AppLovin after.
Thu Nov 5: Jobless claims; Lumentum, IREN, Cloudflare after the close.
Fri Nov 6: October jobs report (8:30 am ET).
Coming up: CPI Nov 10, PPI Nov 13, Nvidia Nov 17, FOMC Dec 8–9.
Bottom line
Higher-for-longer is back, and the market is now separating AI's winners from the companies paying for it. I want to own the toll collectors, hard assets that hold up under rate pressure, and the crypto platforms that incumbents are choosing to partner with.
We'll be digging into these moves in real time over in Discord. If you want my full portfolio, entry levels, and deeper research, consider upgrading.
I have been researching, analyzing, and sharing my views of the cryptocurrency market since Bitcoin was $100. Beyond crypto, I cover precious metals, mining stocks, energy, and the technology sector (AI, robotics, biotech, etc.), using the latest AI and Quant tools to find undervalued companies before the herd. In most cases, the small investment in our research pays for itself many times over. You can get started for just $395.
Cheers,
Jason Hamlin, Founder, Nicoya Research
Prices as of about 10 am PT, Thursday Oct 29, 2026. Week-to-date figures are measured from the Friday Oct 23 close. This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. I may hold positions in assets discussed. Do your own research and consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.