It is almost as if there isn’t a major war and blockade of the a key energy waterway pushing oil above $100. The Nasdaq Composite Index ripped 15% higher in the past month and is now up 9% YTD in 2026. I wasn’t expecting this rip, but markets like to do the opposite of what everyone is expecting. And any logical assessment would have suggested more downside, so here we are.

It is worth noting that the index bounced off the bottom leg of the trend channel, at key support that some technical analysts might have been watching. Likewise, the index is currently just above the top leg of the channel in overbought territory. The RSI confirms this overbought status with a reading of 74. The Nasdaq has been overbought for roughly two weeks now.

The index is trading well above key EMAs and is likely to come down to test support around 23,000 to 23,500 at some point this month. I still think that investors are underestimating the impact of the war in Iran and the likelihood that higher energy prices will be here for quite some time.

But valuations are being propped up by AI/tech earnings, some hopes for de-escalation/peace, and energy prices that have at least stabilized and stopped running higher. The impact on the economy and stock market from artificial intelligence is real and things would undoubtedly be much worse without it.

Takeaway: Growth stocks and earnings momentum are trumping near-term geopolitical and commodity shocks. The markets are optimistic about a resolution to the war and are trading higher on strong earnings from technology companies, largely driven by the AI sector. We reduced exposure somewhat in anticipation of a deeper decline, but kept several of our best performers that have been soaring higher.