Bitcoin’s downward momentum slowed considerably in June, with the price down just 1%. This came after the RSI dipped into deep oversold territory at the start of the month and trended near oversold levels for much of June.

The Bitcoin price is now trading near key support levels, and it remains well below all key EMAs. If we zoom out a bit, we can see why there is key support around the $53,000 to $58,000 range. There were multiple instances of both support and resistance in this range during 2024, prior to the spike higher later that year.

Of course, anything can happen in the crypto markets, but I think the probability that support in this range will hold is very high. Bitcoin should form a bottom around October or November, in line with the 4-year cycle. But I would not be surprised to see it bottom out earlier, as Bitcoin likes to do the least expected.

BTC quickly reversed late-June losses, climbing above $63,000 in thin holiday trading (up ~3–4% weekly). This marked the highest level in over a month and sparked optimism for a July recovery. Bitcoin is currently below the 200-week moving average, which historically has been a great buying opportunity.

While ETFs bled heavily, Bitcoin whales accumulated aggressively (~$16.7B over two weeks, according to some reports), indicating divergence between retail/institutional flows and large holders positioning for a potential bottom.

Whale Holdings for Bitcoin just put in the largest spike in its history. By a country mile. Whales have accumulated around 270,000 in the $59,000 area.

Takeaway: Nobody can say for sure when the sector will bottom out, but the signals are increasingly bullish. The 4-year cycle is nearing a bottom; the price has corrected over 50% from the highs; whales are accumulating aggressively; and the broader market sell-off looks overdue.