The Bitcoin price has been trading sideways despite the increasing geopolitical tensions of the past few months. Over the past month, it has been mostly flat, but spiked in recent hours to $69,000.

The price holding up this well in the face of a major war in the Middle East, elevated energy prices, and falling stock valuations is quite bullish. One would normally expect Bitcoin to follow stocks lower, given the historical correlation. The Nasdaq corrected as much as 12%, and Bitcoin barely blinked.

Support in the $64,000 to $66,000 range has been fairly reliable. Bitcoin is still trading below the 200-day EMA, but that EMA has trended lower toward the current price. The RSI has room to move in either direction.

If the war escalates with boots on the ground or more devastating weapons being deployed, I expect stocks to drop sharply and still drag Bitcoin lower. But it is showing some resiliency over the past few months, potentially displaying signs that it could function as a safe-haven and decouple from stocks.

Iran is said to be accepting cryptocurrency to allow ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which could be adding to demand.

The CLARITY Act represents the most significant US regulatory progress in years, and optimism around the legislation is likely helping the price.

Takeaway: Absent this outbreak of war, I would be expecting the sector to stabilize and start moving higher in the months ahead. But the war introduces uncertainty and tests the resiliency of crypto during turbulent times. It remains to be seen if prices can continue to hold up as the war drags on or intensifies.

March delivered regulatory tailwinds amid geopolitical headwinds, leaving the market in a cautious but constructive holding pattern with Bitcoin holding key support levels.