As 2025 comes to a close, I wanted to share my thoughts about what 2026 may have in store for investors. 2025 was a breakout year for precious metals, while equities also enjoyed double-digit gains. Bitcoin and crypto were more disappointing, with BTC ending the year down more than 5%. This is despite a “pro-crypto” administration and interest rates continuing lower during the back half of the year. Global liquidity also increased in 2025 to record levels and I see this trend continuing or even accelerating in 2026. But chaos is likely to be a major theme in the year ahead, so buckle up.

Gold finally had its launch moment in 2025, driven by high inflation, geopolitical crises, economic uncertainty, and central bank buying. 2025 is the strongest annual performance since 1979 as central banks continued buying at record levels, ETF inflows added to demand, geopolitical tensions intensified, and interest rates moved lower. Gold briefly hit a high of $4,550, before settling a bit lower at $4,318 on December 31st.The consensus price target among major institutions is $4,800–$5,000 per ounce by year-end. My personal target is more optimistic, as I believe the gold price will climb to at least $5,500 per ounce during 2026. This would reflect a gain of around 27%, so less than half of the gain realized in 2025.

Multi-year silver deficits have drained inventories. Big banks have massive paper short positions against silver equivalent to 5.5 years of total global silver production, which many think is a big risk for banks and could cause an explosive move higher in silver if they are forced to cover. Export restrictions in China that start on January 1st have caused the silver price in the East to spike well above global averages. Borrowing costs are skyrocketing and there are reports of panic within the big banks. I take some of these points with a grain of salt, but there is clear stress in the system causing the recent volatility.

The 4-year cycle may no longer have the same relevance on the Bitcoin price as it did in past years. Bull cycle pumps and bear cycles corrections are likely to be shorter and less severe going forward, with the overall price continuing to push higher. As long as global liquidity (including stablecoin issuance) continues to trend higher, I expect the Bitcoin price to follow. So while 2025 was disappointing, I think we will see some pent-up demand/momentum unleashed in 2026 that pushes the price above $150,000.

It is also worth noting that on-chain metrics have not reached the extreme levels they often hit at bull cycle tops. This suggests that we have yet to see the top and this pullback is just a corrective move and not the start of a prolonged bear cycle. The CBBI is a Bitcoin index utilizing real-time analysis of 9 metrics to help better understand what stage of the Bitcoin bull run and bear market cycles we are in. The confidence score indicates whether we are approaching the top or bottom of a Bitcoin price cycle. This index has consistently topped near 100 in past bull cycles, but has only reached a high of 84 during the current bull cycle and has dropped to 54 over the past few months.

Global liquidity and stablecoin issuance have the strongest correlation to the Bitcoin price. Bitcoin moves in the direction of global M2 83% of the time; more than other assets. Both of these metrics have continued increasing to record highs, even as the Bitcoin price has crashed from highs around $126,000 to $87,000. Of course, there can be periods of non-correlation within the larger trend, especially when the liquidity is flowing into other assets, but over time the two lines tend to converge and close gaps. I don’t expect global liquidity to decline in 2026, so the convergence will likely come from the Bitcoin price rising dramatically as it often does after multiple months of correcting and consolidating.

The Nasdaq closed the year up 21%, outpacing the S&P 500 by 5 points due to the tech-heavy composition. This was a solid performance, but it trailed the 2024 performance of 29%. Looking forward to 2026, I expect another solid year, but for gains to moderate again with the index ending the year up 10% to 15%. We are likely to see high volatility and at least one major corrective move over the next 12 months, but momentum from artificial intelligence should continue to lift the sector. The massive disruptive changes coming from AI are real in my opinion and more than hype. This is not to say that valuations do not get ahead of themselves periodically, but I think all major dips are likely to be buying opportunities for investors with a long-term time horizon. In particular, I like the “picks and shovels” AI plays that manufacture the equipment necessary for the data centers that are being built at breakneck pace.

Other areas of disruptive technology that I think will do well are defense, medical, nuclear (small modular reactor), agentic task-based AI, and space/satellite tech. Subscribe to get our top picks in each of these niche sectors.

https://nicoyaresearch.com/investment-newsletters/